Portfolio Management under Stress offers a novel way to apply the well-established Bayesian-net methodology to the important problem of asset allocation under conditions of market distress or, more generally, when an investor believes that a particular scenario (such as the break-up of the Euro) may occur. Employing a coherent and thorough approach, it provides practical guidance on how best to choose an optimal and stable asset allocation in the presence of user specified scenarios or 'stress conditions'. The authors place causal explanations, rather than association-based measures such as correlations, at the core of their argument, and insights from the theory of choice under ambiguity aversion are invoked to obtain stable allocations results. Step-by-step design guidelines are included to allow readers to grasp the full implementation of the approach, and case studies provide clarification. This insightful book is a key resource for practitioners and research academics in the post-financial crisis world.

Today's top financial professionals have come to rely on ever-more sophisticated mathematics in their attempts to come to grips with financial risk. But this excessive reliance on quantitative precision is misleading--and puts everyone at risk. In "Plight of the Fortune Tellers," Riccardo Rebonato forcefully argues that we must restore genuine decision making to our financial planning. Presenting a financial model that uses probability, experimental psychology, and decision theory, Rebonato challenges us to rethink the standard wisdom about risk management. He offers a radical yet surprisingly commonsense solution: managing risk comes down to real people making decisions under uncertainty.

"Plight of the Fortune Tellers" is a must-read for anyone concerned about how today's financial markets are run. In a new preface, Rebonato explains how the ideas presented in this book fit into the context of the global financial crisis that followed its original publication. He argues that risk managers are still stuck in a probabilistic rut, and need to engage with the structural causes of real events.

In this book, well-known expert Riccardo Rebonato provides the theoretical foundations (no-arbitrage, convexity, expectations, risk premia) needed for the affine modeling of the government bond markets. He presents and critically discusses the wealth of empirical findings that have appeared in the literature of the last decade, and introduces the 'structural' models that are used by central banks, institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds, academics, and advanced practitioners to model the yield curve, to answer policy questions, to estimate the magnitude of the risk premium, to gauge market expectations, and to assess investment opportunities. Rebonato weaves precise theory with up-to-date empirical evidence to build, with the minimum mathematical sophistication required for the task, a critical understanding of what drives the government bond market.

"Dr. Rebonato has blended technical mastery with many years of practical experience to produce what should become the standard handbook for anyone wanting to value, hedge or control the risks of interest rate derivatives."--Ian Cooper, Professor of Finance, London Business School

"This eagerly awaited book fills an important need. It covers the pressing but technically difficult issues of how to implement 'market' models of the term structure for the purposes of valuing and hedging interest-rate-sensitive derivatives. Dr. Rebonato is a leading expert in the field. His treatment is exceptionally lucid as well as authoritative."--Stewart Hodges, University of Warwick

"Riccardo Rebonato succeeds admirably in combining an accessible exposition of the foundations of the LIBOR market model framework with extensive guidance on the calibration and implementation of the models in practice. The book's many insights into the dynamics of fixed income markets and models should provide industry professionals with valuable tools and offer academics a rare glimpse of the market as viewed by a practitioner-theorist, all presented in the author's elegant and lively style."--Paul Glasserman, Columbia University

"This book is a significant contribution to the field. It offers plenty of empirical work and case studies illustrating the application of the models each step of the way. Unlike other treatments, it emphasizes the market rationale for modeling choices, and is not driven by purely mathematical considerations. Reference is continually made to market features, the behaviour of instruments, and empirical features, with all of this backed up by the author's considerable experience."--NickWebber, University of Warwick

"There are many books that get bogged down in mathematical technicalities before they get to the point and are therefore of little use to practitioners. Rebonato takes the opposite approach: he gets to the point. People working in the mathematical finance industry will love this book."--Jeff Dewynne, Oxford University